Democrat Beau Bayh holds a sizeable lead in the four-way race for Indiana Secretary of State less than three weeks before the midterm election, according to a Free Press Indiana Poll conducted by Bellwether Research.
In the survey of more than 800 likely voters, 43% said they would vote for Bayh, the son of former Indiana Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh, if the election were held today. Republican Max Engling, a long-time staffer in Washington, D.C., came in second with 35%.
The gap between the two is large enough that, even accounting for the poll’s margin of error, Bayh still holds the lead.
Jack Tormoehlen, Bayh’s campaign manager, said in a statement that the poll shows “the momentum for change in Indiana is real.”
“Hoosiers are tired of the corruption in our state government and know that Max Engling will be more of the same,” Tormoehlen said. “Beau has built a strong campaign with support from Democrats, Republicans and independents, and we will continue to offer voters an alternative to the status quo.”
Chloe Anagnos, communications director for Engling, criticized the survey and said it under-polled Republicans. The survey included 49% who self-identified as Republican or leaning that way, and 40% identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic.
“While we believe the poll over-samples non-Republican voters, the polls shows after spending $4M in the last 90 days, Beau Bayh still remains nearly where every Democrat has performed for the last decade … Based on Beau’s constant lies about Max and his record, Beau knows he’s behind,” Anagnos said.
Libertarian candidate Lauri Shillings garnered support from 6% of respondents in the survey. Greg Ballard, a former Indianapolis mayor running as an independent under the newly formed Lincoln Party, received 5%.
If Bayh wins in November, it would mark the first time a Democrat has won a statewide election since 2012, when Joe Donnelly was elected to the U.S. Senate. A Democrat hasn’t held the secretary of state office since 1994.
The poll revealed Bayh had significant name recognition compared to the other candidates. Of those surveyed, just 27% said they had never heard of him and 35% said they had a favorable view of him.
Nearly 50% said they had never heard of Engling, and only 12% said they had a favorable view. Engling, who most recently worked for Sen. Jim Banks, was nominated in June over current Secretary of State Diego Morales at the Indiana Republican State Convention.
Even with Ballard’s political background, he has also struggled to gain name recognition outside of Indianapolis, with 44% of those surveyed saying they had never heard of him.
Kate Shepherd, a spokesperson for Ballard’s campaign, said those numbers are already outdated since Ballard launched a statewide TV-ad campaign after the poll concluded and is “ratcheting up its media buy.”
“This poll is actually encouraging, because it shows a large percentage of Hoosiers either have no opinion of Mayor Ballard or have never heard of him,” Shepherd said. “We have several weeks to change that, have room for growth and momentum on our side.”
Shillings had the worst name recognition with 65% saying they didn’t know who she was.
In a statement, the Libertarian pointed to the fact that although only 35% know her name, 6% of those who responded said they would vote for her.
“The people who know this race are choosing us,” Shillings said. “Our problem isn’t persuasion. It’s introduction … we are spending every dollar we have in statewide media to change that in the next nineteen days.”
Bayh’s name recognition has likely been helped by a well-funded blitz of TV ads. Campaign finance reports filed Thursday show his campaign spent $3.9 million during July and September. That’s more than double the $1.6 million spent by Engling’s campaign during the same timeframe. Ballard only spent $182,000.
Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard (Left), Libertarian candidate Lauri Shillings (Top) and Republican candidate Max Engling (Bottom) Credit: Doug McSchooler for the Indiana Debate Commission
But the Democrat’s lead is likely influenced by a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, according to Chad Kinsella, a political scientist at Ball State University.
The poll found 54% of Hoosiers do not approve of the president’s job performance, marking a sharp turn for voters in deep-red Indiana, where Trump won the state by nearly 20 percentage points in 2024.
“I think it has less to do with the Bayh name than it has to do with Trump and high gas prices,” Kinsella said. “I think Democrats just have such an advantage in terms of excitement right now.”
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Hoosiers are also displeased with Gov. Braun and the direction he’s taking the state.
According to the survey, 58% of Democrats said they are more enthusiastic to vote this year than normal, while just 34% of Republicans feel the same way.
The poll found strong Democratic excitement for Bayh, with 85% saying they would vote for him. Republicans were less likely to vote for Engling, with 68% saying they would vote for him and 9% indicating they would vote for Bayh.
Independents also overwhelmingly supported Bayh, with 39% voting for him, 9% voting for Engling and 15% voting for Shillings.
That Democratic enthusiasm fueled by opposition to Trump is trickling down to the state’s congressional races. All nine Indiana members of the U.S. House are defending their seats this election. Seven of those are held by Republicans.
The poll found that if the election for Congress were being held today, 45% would vote for the Democrat and 44% would vote for the Republican, pointing to potentially closer-than-usual races in districts which GOP candidates have historically won by large margins. But the poll did not ask about specific congressional races.
In the state comptroller race, the poll found that Democrat Jessica Bailey held a small lead over Republican incumbent Elise Nieshalla, with 39% voting for Bailey and 36% for Nieshalla.
In the state treasurer race, 43% of those polled said they would vote for incumbent Republican Daniel Elliott and 38% for Democrat Coumba Kebe.
Kinsell said add it all up, and Republicans face a “pretty bleak election” in Indiana.
“There are just lots of red flags and alarm bells everywhere for Republicans,” he said.
Free Press Indiana commissioned the poll by Bellwether Research. It surveyed 896 registered voters in Indiana from Oct. 8-11 via telephone interviews and online surveys sent by text message. The results are based on responses from 839 likely voters, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Bellwether Research’s clients include former Gov. Mitch Daniels, Eli Lilly and the Nature Conservancy in Indiana.
Editor’s note: This story has been corrected to remove a reference to Republican Max Engling never running for office before. He ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2024.
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FPI News reporter Carson Gerber covers healthcare, manufacturing, agriculture, immigration … and just about any other topic that’s shaping how we live in Indiana today. Reach him at 765-204-4250 or carson.gerber@fpinews.org.
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